Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Lakers DAL @ LAL

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-34  |  Road

104
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 10:00 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

32-21  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Los Angeles)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

34.5%

Lakers Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

20.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

9.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

27.4%

LAL By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
119
DALLAS
123
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
114
DALLAS
119
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o237.5 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 LAL @ DAL 128 - 134
Feb 12, 2026 DAL @ LAL 104 - 124
Jan 24, 2026 LAL @ DAL 116 - 110
Nov 28, 2025 DAL @ LAL 119 - 129
Oct 15, 2025 DAL @ LAL 121 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.4% more
Los Angeles: 17.5 vs Dallas: 11.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Los Angeles: 37.6% vs Dallas: 32.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Los Angeles: 50.4% vs Dallas: 46.2%
Blocks (L5) +32.1% more
Dallas: 5.1 vs Los Angeles: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 119.0 104
LAL Score 123.0 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 32.3 32.0 / 27.0
Assists 25.3 / 23.8 35.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.5 / 5.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.4 / 46.2 56.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 75.2 86.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 43.6 44.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.5 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.5 / 11.6 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
DAL
LAL
DAL
ML
61% 68-43
62% 63-39
54% 49-42
54% 44-37
ATS
61% 67-43-1
67% 68-34
54% 49-42
54% 44-37
TTL
61% 66-43-2
59% 60-41-1
100% 91-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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