UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
15-9 | Road
51
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
16-9 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
TRITONS
100%
AGGIES
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCD -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
UCD By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCD By 8-14 points
26.8%
UCSD By 1-7 points
6.8%
UCSD By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Davis
85
UC DAVIS
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
UC Davis
70
UC DAVIS
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Aggies (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
UCD @ UCSD
51 - 68
Jan 22, 2026
UCSD @ UCD
80 - 74
Mar 8, 2025
UCSD @ UCD
68 - 57
Feb 15, 2025
UCD @ UCSD
60 - 85
Mar 7, 2024
UCD @ UCSD
70 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+20.2%
UC Davis: 81.1%
vs
UC San Diego: 60.9%
Assists (L5)
+18.7% more
UC Davis: 14.4
vs
UC San Diego: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
UC Davis: 38.1%
vs
UC San Diego: 30.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
UC Davis: 42.8%
vs
UC San Diego: 40.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCD Score
85.0
51
UCSD Score
72.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 38.1
41.0 / 30.0
Assists
11.7 / 14.4
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.4
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.7 / 42.8
54.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
60.9 / 81.1
78.0 / 14.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 34.7
40.0 / 29.0
Steals
8.3 / 7.8
5.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 12.5
21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
UCD
UCSD
UCD
ML
56%
19-15
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
64%
21-12
ATS
50%
17-17
61%
20-13
65%
22-12
64%
21-12
TTL
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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