Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Redbirds VAL @ ILST

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

13-12  |  Road

64
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 7:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

16-9  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
REDBIRDS
0%
BEACONS --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Illinois State)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

15.9%

Redbirds Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)

VAL By 1-7 points

10.7%

VAL By 8-14 points

3.3%

ILST By 1-7 points

23.0%

ILST By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
58
VALPARAISO
68
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
68
VALPARAISO
72
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Redbirds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Redbirds (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 VAL @ ILST 64 - 86
Jan 7, 2026 ILST @ VAL 71 - 77
Feb 1, 2025 VAL @ ILST 78 - 86
Mar 3, 2024 ILST @ VAL 72 - 75
Jan 14, 2024 VAL @ ILST 59 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +53.5% more
Illinois State: 15.9 vs Valparaiso: 10.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Illinois State: 37.7% vs Valparaiso: 34.7%
Blocks (L5) +36.7% more
Valparaiso: 3.1 vs Illinois State: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +13.8% more
Valparaiso: 39.4 vs Illinois State: 33.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 58.0 64
ILST Score 68.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 34.7 35.0 / 38.0
Assists 15.9 / 10.4 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.1 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 45.6 52.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 66.7 / 66.7 100.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 39.4 39.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.9 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 11.4 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
ILST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
VAL
ILST
VAL
ML
42% 15-21
48% 16-17
71% 24-10
61% 20-13
ATS
58% 21-15
52% 17-16
71% 24-10
61% 20-13
TTL
58% 21-15
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 45 minutes ago
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
yahoo 19 hours, 54 minutes ago
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…
kwch 4 days ago
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
headtopics 4 days, 19 hours ago
Florida State Crushes Virginia 38-7 as Ashton Daniels Sets Recor…
si 4 days, 19 hours ago