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OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

13-13  |  Road

90
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 9:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

14-12  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
100%
📊
DONS
0%
BEAVERS --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (San Francisco)
BeaversORST (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beavers Cover

3.6%

Dons Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SF -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ORST By 1-7 points

2.7%

ORST By 8-14 points

0.5%

SF By 1-7 points

10.7%

SF By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
74
OREGON STATE
92
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
70
OREGON STATE
78
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dons (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Dons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 SF @ ORST 77 - 78
Feb 12, 2026 ORST @ SF 90 - 63
Dec 30, 2025 SF @ ORST 62 - 70
Feb 26, 2025 SF @ ORST 74 - 72
Jan 18, 2025 ORST @ SF 70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.0% more
San Francisco: 2.9 vs Oregon State: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
San Francisco: 80.8% vs Oregon State: 74.0%
Turnovers (L5) +13.4% more
Oregon State: 10.0 vs San Francisco: 8.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Oregon State: 38.6% vs San Francisco: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 74.0 90
SF Score 92.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 38.6 20.0 / 60.0
Assists 12.0 / 13.0 7.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.2 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 37.0 / 41.3 38.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 74.0 67.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 31.3 29.0 / 34.0
Steals 3.9 / 4.1 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 10.0 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
SF
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ORST
SF
ORST
ML
39% 13-20
45% 15-18
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
ATS
42% 14-19
48% 16-17
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
TTL
73% 24-9
55% 18-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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