Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Foxes @ Warriors MRST @ MRMK

MARIST

RED FOXESMRST

16-8  |  Road

56
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Lawler Arena
View Odds Details →

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

16-9  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
RED FOXES --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Merrimack)
Red FoxesMRST (-3.5) 0 WarriorsMRMK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Foxes Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRMK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

MRST By 1-7 points

24.3%

MRST By 8-14 points

13.7%

MRMK By 1-7 points

26.2%

MRMK By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MARIST
80
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
64
MARIST
68
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o129.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u129.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 MRST @ MRMK 57 - 58
Feb 12, 2026 MRST @ MRMK 56 - 81
Jan 19, 2026 MRMK @ MRST 68 - 55
Mar 6, 2025 MRMK @ MRST 75 - 53
Feb 16, 2025 MRST @ MRMK 61 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.0% more
Merrimack: 7.0 vs Marist: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +22.3% more
Merrimack: 4.2 vs Marist: 3.4
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Merrimack: 49.0% vs Marist: 46.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +10.4%
Marist: 89.5% vs Merrimack: 79.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRST Score 79.0 56
MRMK Score 80.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 37.1 39.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.9 / 14.3 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.4 10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 46.4 55.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 79.2 / 89.5 64.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 34.9 31.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.8 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 10.6 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -3.0
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
MRST
MRMK
MRST
ML
47% 16-18
55% 17-14
65% 22-12
61% 19-12
ATS
53% 18-16
74% 23-8
65% 22-12
61% 19-12
TTL
62% 21-13
52% 16-15
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Warriors Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg Poised for Significant Role in 2…
al 1 week, 3 days ago
Big Ten Road Warriors: Historic Saturday Shakes Up Conference Po…
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago
“This Is Horrific”: Warriors Analyst Slams Draymond Green’s $27M…
yahoo 2 months, 1 week ago
What Should Warriors Do After Missing on LeBron James? Three Pot…
headtopics 2 months, 1 week ago
Bob Myers tried and failed to justify Warriors’ doomed two-timel…
recentlyheard 2 months, 2 weeks ago