MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
11-12 | Road
90
KENNESAW STATE
OWLSKENN
14-9 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
OWLS
0%
BLUE RAIDERS
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kennesaw State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KENN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)
MTSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
MTSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
KENN By 1-7 points
26.2%
KENN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Middle Tennessee
89
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Kennesaw State
90
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
Middle Tennessee
70
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Kennesaw State
78
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Owls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Owls (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Owls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
MTSU @ KENN
90 - 87
Dec 17, 2025
KENN @ MTSU
67 - 68
Feb 8, 2025
MTSU @ KENN
76 - 75
Jan 9, 2025
KENN @ MTSU
79 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+106.1% more
Kennesaw State: 5.4
vs
Middle Tennessee: 2.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Kennesaw State: 68.7%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 65.3%
Assists (L5)
+30.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 16.5
vs
Kennesaw State: 11.4
Steals (L5)
+19.1% more
Middle Tennessee: 6.1
vs
Kennesaw State: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score
89.0
90
KENN Score
90.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 31.4
39.0 / 41.0
Assists
11.4 / 16.5
15.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.6
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
39.0 / 43.5
50.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
68.7 / 65.3
62.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
37.6 / 36.2
28.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.0 / 6.1
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 11.2
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
KENN
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
KENN
Advantage
15-16-1
(48.4%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
KENN
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
MTSU
KENN
MTSU
ML
74%
25-9
56%
18-14
72%
23-9
69%
22-10
ATS
71%
24-10
75%
24-8
73%
24-9
69%
22-10
TTL
56%
19-15
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
