CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
LANCERSCBU
18-6 | Road
83
SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
8-16 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
THUNDERBIRDS
0%
LANCERS
--
THUNDERBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SOUTHERN UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Southern Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SUU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SUU)
CBU By 1-7 points
23.0%
CBU By 8-14 points
12.2%
SUU By 1-7 points
26.8%
SUU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
California Baptist
66
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Southern Utah
68
SOUTHERN UTAH
Simulated Score
California Baptist
72
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Southern Utah
75
SOUTHERN UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunderbirds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunderbirds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunderbirds (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Thunderbirds (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
CBU @ SUU
82 - 75
Feb 12, 2026
CBU @ SUU
83 - 66
Jan 10, 2026
SUU @ CBU
55 - 58
Feb 6, 2025
SUU @ CBU
60 - 57
Jan 25, 2025
CBU @ SUU
76 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+60.8% more
Southern Utah: 12.6
vs
California Baptist: 7.8
Steals (L5)
+39.5% more
Southern Utah: 6.1
vs
California Baptist: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+35.0% more
Southern Utah: 17.1
vs
California Baptist: 12.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.5%
Southern Utah: 80.8%
vs
California Baptist: 72.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CBU Score
66.0
83
SUU Score
68.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 36.1
39.0 / 45.0
Assists
12.6 / 7.8
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.0
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 38.5
42.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 72.3
55.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 41.7
30.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.1 / 4.4
2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 12.6
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CBU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
SUU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CBU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
SUU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -4.1
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SUU
CBU
SUU
CBU
ML
61%
19-12
50%
17-17
68%
21-10
76%
25-8
ATS
71%
22-9
53%
18-16
69%
22-10
76%
25-8
TTL
52%
16-15
47%
16-18
100%
32-0
100%
33-0