PORTLAND STATE
VIKINGSPRST
16-6 | Road
77
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
9-16 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
VIKINGS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Northern Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NAU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAU)
PRST By 1-7 points
21.6%
PRST By 8-14 points
10.7%
NAU By 1-7 points
27.2%
NAU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland State
52
PORTLAND STATE
Northern Arizona
55
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Portland State
72
PORTLAND STATE
Northern Arizona
75
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u136.5
Loss
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
PRST @ NAU
77 - 68
Jan 17, 2026
NAU @ PRST
52 - 63
Feb 13, 2025
NAU @ PRST
46 - 58
Jan 18, 2025
PRST @ NAU
80 - 69
Feb 17, 2024
NAU @ PRST
68 - 83
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
Northern Arizona: 39.7%
vs
Portland State: 31.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Northern Arizona: 46.9%
vs
Portland State: 44.8%
Blocks (L5)
+51.7% more
Portland State: 3.0
vs
Northern Arizona: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+45.6% more
Portland State: 8.1
vs
Northern Arizona: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PRST Score
52.0
77
NAU Score
55.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 31.0
26.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.1 / 12.3
12.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.4 / 3.0
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 44.8
43.0 / 62.0
Free Throw %
67.9 / 74.5
81.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
24.7 / 37.1
24.0 / 30.0
Steals
4.4 / 8.1
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 10.3
7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRST
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRST
Advantage
18-9-1
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
PRST
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.9
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
PRST
NAU
PRST
ML
62%
20-12
65%
20-11
81%
26-6
71%
22-9
ATS
62%
20-12
71%
22-9
81%
26-6
71%
22-9
TTL
66%
21-11
47%
14-16-1
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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