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SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

9-14  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Bank of Colorado Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

15-10  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
HORNETS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Northern Colorado)
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 BearsUNCO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

2.9%

Bears Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCO -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCO)

SAC By 1-7 points

2.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.4%

UNCO By 1-7 points

9.3%

UNCO By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
62
SACRAMENTO STATE
81
NORTHERN COLORADO
Simulated Score
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
72
NORTHERN COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 SAC @ UNCO 79 - 95
Jan 17, 2026 UNCO @ SAC 89 - 93
Feb 13, 2025 UNCO @ SAC 77 - 61
Jan 18, 2025 SAC @ UNCO 64 - 68
Feb 17, 2024 UNCO @ SAC 80 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +117.1% more
Northern Colorado: 5.2 vs Sacramento State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Northern Colorado: 35.5 vs Sacramento State: 32.0
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Northern Colorado: 51.0% vs Sacramento State: 46.4%
Steals (L5) +53.6% more
Sacramento State: 7.6 vs Northern Colorado: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 62.0 79
UNCO Score 81.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 45.8 34.0 / 27.0
Assists 14.6 / 15.7 26.0 / 5.0
Blocks 5.2 / 2.4 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 46.4 56.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 80.3 77.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 32.0 41.0 / 29.0
Steals 3.5 / 7.6 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 10.3 14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCO
SAC
UNCO
SAC
ML
50% 16-16
57% 17-13
66% 21-11
87% 26-4
ATS
53% 17-15
73% 22-8
66% 21-11
87% 27-4
TTL
50% 16-16
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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