Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tommies @ Mavericks STMN @ OMA

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

20-6  |  Road

94
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Baxter Arena
View Odds Details →

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

12-14  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
TOMMIES --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
OMAHA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Omaha)
TommiesSTMN (-3.5) 0 MavericksOMA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tommies Cover

3.6%

Mavericks Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OMA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OMA)

STMN By 1-7 points

2.7%

STMN By 8-14 points

0.5%

OMA By 1-7 points

10.7%

OMA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
71
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
89
OMAHA
Simulated Score
68
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
72
OMAHA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 OMA @ STMN 53 - 68
Feb 12, 2026 STMN @ OMA 94 - 98
Mar 9, 2025 STMN @ OMA 75 - 85
Feb 15, 2025 OMA @ STMN 84 - 95
Jan 23, 2025 STMN @ OMA 78 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +58.1% more
Omaha: 3.8 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +46.1% more
Omaha: 11.0 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 7.5
Steals (L5) +55.0% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 7.5 vs Omaha: 3.4
Assists (L5) +13.6% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 14.4 vs Omaha: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STMN Score 71.0 94
OMA Score 89.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 37.3 41.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.4 / 14.4 15.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.4 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 52.3 53.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 72.4 89.0 / 43.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 34.3 34.0 / 27.0
Steals 3.4 / 7.5 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 7.5 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OMA
STMN
OMA
STMN
ML
79% 26-7
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
64% 21-12
ATS
76% 25-8
70% 23-10
67% 22-11
64% 21-12
TTL
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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