EVANSVILLE
PURPLE ACESEVAN
6-19 | Road
60
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
11-14 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
0%
SALUKIS
100%
PURPLE ACES
--
SALUKIS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIU +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)
EVAN By 1-7 points
27.2%
EVAN By 8-14 points
23.0%
SIU By 1-7 points
18.6%
SIU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Evansville
95
EVANSVILLE
Southern Illinois
90
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Evansville
73
EVANSVILLE
Southern Illinois
68
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Purple Aces
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Purple Aces
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Salukis (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Purple Aces (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
SIU @ EVAN
81 - 67
Feb 12, 2026
EVAN @ SIU
60 - 86
Feb 5, 2025
SIU @ EVAN
68 - 59
Jan 1, 2025
EVAN @ SIU
68 - 53
Feb 25, 2024
SIU @ EVAN
65 - 53
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+17.7%
Evansville: 45.1%
vs
Southern Illinois: 27.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.5%
Evansville: 74.7%
vs
Southern Illinois: 70.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Evansville: 46.8%
vs
Southern Illinois: 44.0%
Steals (L5)
+78.1% more
Southern Illinois: 9.0
vs
Evansville: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score
95.0
60
SIU Score
90.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.4 / 45.1
33.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.0 / 13.4
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.1
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 46.8
52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 74.7
82.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 28.5
40.0 / 25.0
Steals
9.0 / 5.1
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.4
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
SIU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
SIU
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.3
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
EVAN
SIU
EVAN
ML
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
47%
15-17
62%
20-12
ATS
56%
18-14
66%
21-11
47%
15-17
62%
20-12
TTL
53%
17-15
62%
20-12
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
