Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Wildcats UTA @ ACU

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

14-9  |  Road

63
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Abilene)
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

10-13  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
MAVERICKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Abilene Christian)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

3.6%

Wildcats Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ACU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

UTA By 1-7 points

2.7%

UTA By 8-14 points

0.5%

ACU By 1-7 points

10.7%

ACU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
UT ARLINGTON
86
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
69
UT ARLINGTON
72
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UTA @ ACU 64 - 57
Feb 12, 2026 UTA @ ACU 63 - 67
Jan 10, 2026 ACU @ UTA 72 - 82
Mar 1, 2025 ACU @ UTA 70 - 59
Jan 25, 2025 UTA @ ACU 79 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.4% more
Abilene Christian: 9.1 vs UT Arlington: 7.1
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
Abilene Christian: 14.0 vs UT Arlington: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.7%
Abilene Christian: 32.8% vs UT Arlington: 23.1%
Blocks (L5) +38.6% more
UT Arlington: 3.8 vs Abilene Christian: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 68.0 63
ACU Score 86.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 23.1 29.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.4 / 12.7 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.8 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.1 / 45.3 38.0 / 61.0
Free Throw % 60.6 / 71.0 75.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 34.2 31.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.1 / 7.1 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 12.7 11.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
UTA
ACU
UTA
ML
67% 22-11
50% 16-16
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
ATS
55% 18-15
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
TTL
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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