SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
37-16 | Road
126
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
29-25 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
SPURS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
SA By 1-7 points
27.4%
SA By 8-14 points
21.6%
GS By 1-7 points
20.1%
GS By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
119
SAN ANTONIO
Golden State
115
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
San Antonio
120
SAN ANTONIO
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Spurs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.5
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim
u220.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
SA @ GS
127 - 113
Feb 11, 2026
SA @ GS
126 - 113
Nov 14, 2025
GS @ SA
109 - 108
Nov 12, 2025
GS @ SA
125 - 120
Apr 9, 2025
SA @ GS
114 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+57.7% more
San Antonio: 7.6
vs
Golden State: 3.2
Rebounding (L5)
+18.6% more
San Antonio: 48.9
vs
Golden State: 39.8
Assists (L5)
+11.4% more
San Antonio: 31.8
vs
Golden State: 28.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
San Antonio: 53.1%
vs
Golden State: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
119.0
126
GS Score
115.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 37.4
34.0 / 26.0
Assists
28.1 / 31.8
37.0 / 35.0
Blocks
3.2 / 7.6
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 53.1
46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 74.8
76.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
39.8 / 48.9
40.0 / 44.0
Steals
12.0 / 9.2
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
18.1 / 14.5
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
SA
GS
SA
ML
55%
95-79
60%
111-73
58%
49-35
58%
61-44
ATS
58%
101-73
58%
107-76-1
58%
49-35
58%
61-44
TTL
77%
134-40
74%
134-47-3
100%
84-0
100%
105-0
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