OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
41-13 | Road
136
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
32-22 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
SUNS
0%
THUNDER
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
OKC By 1-7 points
16.9%
OKC By 8-14 points
6.8%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
Phoenix
119
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o213.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim
u213.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.8% more
Oklahoma City: 4.5
vs
Phoenix: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+14.5% more
Oklahoma City: 10.7
vs
Phoenix: 9.1
Turnovers (L5)
+11.1% more
Oklahoma City: 14.9
vs
Phoenix: 13.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Oklahoma City: 39.0%
vs
Phoenix: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
113.0
136
PHX Score
119.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 39.0
36.0 / 42.0
Assists
26.0 / 25.1
26.0 / 28.0
Blocks
2.2 / 4.5
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 46.3
47.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 76.1
62.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 44.3
43.0 / 37.0
Steals
9.1 / 10.7
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 14.9
12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
OKC
PHX
OKC
ML
57%
60-45
70%
80-34
51%
45-43
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
59-43-3
73%
83-30-1
51%
45-43
48%
46-49
TTL
59%
61-42-2
67%
76-38
100%
88-0
100%
95-0
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