Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Golden Eagles USA @ USM

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

17-7  |  Road

84
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 8:30 PM ET
Reed Green Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

13-13  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
JAGUARS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (South Alabama)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

65.5%

Golden Eagles Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

USA By 1-7 points

27.4%

USA By 8-14 points

21.6%

USM By 1-7 points

20.1%

USM By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SOUTH ALABAMA
75
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
65
SOUTH ALABAMA
78
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 USM @ USA 68 - 55
Feb 12, 2026 USA @ USM 84 - 78
Feb 26, 2025 USA @ USM 88 - 82
Jan 15, 2025 USM @ USA 62 - 75
Feb 28, 2024 USM @ USA 70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +31.4% more
South Alabama: 12.7 vs Southern Miss: 8.7
Steals (L5) +9.9% more
South Alabama: 7.3 vs Southern Miss: 6.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
South Alabama: 37.5% vs Southern Miss: 28.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
South Alabama: 46.3% vs Southern Miss: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 79.0 84
USM Score 75.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 37.5 40.0 / 39.0
Assists 8.7 / 12.7 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.8 / 1.1 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.2 / 46.3 48.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 61.7 79.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 34.6 36.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.3 7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 7.0 21.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
USA
USM
USA
ML
53% 18-16
47% 15-17
73% 24-9
57% 17-13
ATS
59% 20-14
53% 17-15
74% 25-9
57% 17-13
TTL
68% 23-11
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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