Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Nuggets MEM @ DEN

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

20-32  |  Road

116
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

34-20  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Denver)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

46.0%

Nuggets Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

MEM By 1-7 points

24.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

13.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

26.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
117
MEMPHIS
118
DENVER
Simulated Score
115
MEMPHIS
110
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nuggets (+14) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u239.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 MEM @ DEN 119 - 136
Mar 18, 2026 DEN @ MEM 118 - 125
Feb 11, 2026 MEM @ DEN 116 - 122
Nov 24, 2025 DEN @ MEM 125 - 115
Apr 11, 2025 MEM @ DEN 109 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +14.6% more
Denver: 44.5 vs Memphis: 38.8
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Denver: 28.2 vs Memphis: 25.7
Steals (L5) +38.6% more
Memphis: 12.8 vs Denver: 7.9
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
Memphis: 15.8 vs Denver: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 117.0 116
DEN Score 118.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 36.4 45.0 / 38.0
Assists 28.2 / 25.7 29.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.0 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 49.5 53.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 76.8 81.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 44.5 / 38.8 46.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.9 / 12.8 2.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 15.8 15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MEM
DEN
MEM
ML
54% 57-48
57% 59-44
55% 47-39
50% 41-41
ATS
63% 65-38-2
63% 65-38
55% 47-39
50% 41-41
TTL
54% 56-48-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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