MIAMI
HEATMIA
28-27 | Road
123
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
15-40 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
PELICANS
100%
HEAT
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.2%
NO By 1-7 points
10.7%
NO By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
124
MIAMI
New Orleans
114
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Miami
102
MIAMI
New Orleans
109
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pelicans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Pelicans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.0
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
MIA @ NO
123 - 111
Jan 4, 2026
NO @ MIA
106 - 125
Apr 11, 2025
MIA @ NO
153 - 104
Jan 1, 2025
NO @ MIA
108 - 119
Oct 13, 2024
NO @ MIA
99 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.2% more
Miami: 10.0
vs
New Orleans: 7.8
Rebounding (L5)
+18.7% more
Miami: 49.2
vs
New Orleans: 40.0
Turnovers (L5)
+12.7% more
Miami: 14.0
vs
New Orleans: 12.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Miami: 76.6%
vs
New Orleans: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
124.0
123
NO Score
114.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 35.0
35.0 / 30.0
Assists
28.2 / 27.9
27.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.1 / 3.2
3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 44.2
46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 76.6
84.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
40.0 / 49.2
46.0 / 56.0
Steals
7.8 / 10.0
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 14.0
13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MIA
NO
MIA
ML
62%
98-61
48%
46-50
58%
48-35
59%
48-34
ATS
68%
107-51-1
51%
49-47
58%
48-35
59%
48-34
TTL
75%
119-40
59%
57-39
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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