ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
26-29 | Road
107
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
25-29 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
HORNETS
0%
HAWKS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
ATL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
12.2%
CHA By 1-7 points
26.8%
CHA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
117
ATLANTA
Charlotte
119
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o235.0
Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
ATL @ CHA
107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026
CHA @ ATL
126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025
CHA @ ATL
110 - 113
Mar 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
134 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+38.8% more
Charlotte: 18.4
vs
Atlanta: 13.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.8%
Charlotte: 94.2%
vs
Atlanta: 78.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Charlotte: 39.8%
vs
Atlanta: 36.4%
Steals (L5)
+34.5% more
Atlanta: 9.0
vs
Charlotte: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
117.0
107
CHA Score
119.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 36.4
37.0 / 28.0
Assists
24.6 / 26.9
21.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.1
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 45.3
38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
94.2 / 78.5
86.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
46.0 / 42.8
50.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.9 / 9.0
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
18.4 / 13.3
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
ATL
CHA
ATL
ML
61%
60-39
50%
52-52
48%
40-44
55%
48-40
ATS
60%
59-40
53%
55-48-1
48%
40-44
55%
48-40
TTL
58%
57-42
53%
55-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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