Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Crusaders COLG @ HC

COLGATE

RAIDERSCOLG

15-10  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 6:00 PM ET
Hart Center
View Odds Details →

HOLY CROSS

CRUSADERSHC

9-16  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
CRUSADERS
0%
RAIDERS --
CRUSADERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOLY CROSS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Holy Cross)
RaidersCOLG (-3.5) 0 CrusadersHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

42.1%

Crusaders Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HC)

COLG By 1-7 points

23.0%

COLG By 8-14 points

12.2%

HC By 1-7 points

26.8%

HC By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
COLGATE
83
HOLY CROSS
Simulated Score
78
COLGATE
70
HOLY CROSS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Crusaders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Crusaders (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Raiders (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 COLG @ HC 74 - 70
Jan 28, 2026 HC @ COLG 74 - 79
Feb 26, 2025 HC @ COLG 73 - 81
Feb 12, 2025 COLG @ HC 87 - 65
Mar 7, 2024 HC @ COLG 64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Holy Cross: 39.4% vs Colgate: 32.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
Holy Cross: 77.7% vs Colgate: 71.9%
Turnovers (L5) +41.3% more
Colgate: 11.5 vs Holy Cross: 6.7
Steals (L5) +30.4% more
Colgate: 8.2 vs Holy Cross: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLG Score 81.0 74
HC Score 83.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 32.3 21.0 / 32.0
Assists 10.1 / 13.3 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.2 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 46.6 36.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 71.9 85.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 37.5 41.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.7 / 8.2 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 6.7 / 11.5 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
HC
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
HC Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.9
HC
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HC
COLG
HC
COLG
ML
52% 16-15
59% 19-13
61% 19-12
69% 22-10
ATS
55% 17-14
72% 23-9
64% 21-12
70% 23-10
TTL
58% 18-13
78% 25-7
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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