Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mocs @ Buccaneers UTC @ ETSU

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

10-15  |  Road

61
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

18-7  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
MOCS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
MOCS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
CHATTANOOGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Chattanooga)
MocsUTC (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mocs Cover

99.2%

Buccaneers Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTC)

UTC By 1-7 points

4.0%

UTC By 8-14 points

12.2%

ETSU By 1-7 points

0.6%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
96
CHATTANOOGA
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
70
CHATTANOOGA
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mocs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mocs (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 UTC @ ETSU 61 - 73
Jan 21, 2026 ETSU @ UTC 67 - 66
Feb 15, 2025 ETSU @ UTC 71 - 78
Jan 25, 2025 UTC @ ETSU 71 - 63
Mar 10, 2024 ETSU @ UTC 85 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.5% more
Chattanooga: 3.9 vs East Tennessee State: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
Chattanooga: 12.2 vs East Tennessee State: 10.8
Steals (L5) +85.3% more
East Tennessee State: 8.8 vs Chattanooga: 4.8
Assists (L5) +21.3% more
East Tennessee State: 17.4 vs Chattanooga: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTC Score 96.0 61
ETSU Score 72.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 34.3 25.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.4 / 14.3 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.9 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 45.0 39.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 81.7 / 74.5 74.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 31.1 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.8 / 4.8 7.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 12.2 5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
ETSU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
UTC
ETSU
UTC
ML
42% 14-19
48% 15-16
70% 23-10
53% 16-14
ATS
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
70% 23-10
55% 17-14
TTL
45% 15-18
77% 24-7
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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