TROY
TROJANSTROY
17-8 | Road
62
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
15-11 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
BOBCATS
100%
TROJANS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TROY -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
TROY By 1-7 points
2.2%
TROY By 8-14 points
8.0%
TXST By 1-7 points
0.3%
TXST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
89
TROY
Texas State
62
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Troy
72
TROY
Texas State
75
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trojans (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
TROY @ TXST
62 - 74
Dec 31, 2025
TXST @ TROY
80 - 100
Feb 25, 2025
TROY @ TXST
74 - 69
Jan 9, 2025
TXST @ TROY
74 - 73
Mar 9, 2024
TXST @ TROY
74 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+17.9% more
Troy: 16.4
vs
Texas State: 13.4
Blocks (L5)
+162.8% more
Texas State: 5.7
vs
Troy: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+28.9% more
Texas State: 10.7
vs
Troy: 8.3
Steals (L5)
+12.5% more
Texas State: 7.7
vs
Troy: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
89.0
62
TXST Score
62.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 35.9
22.0 / 30.0
Assists
13.4 / 16.4
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.7 / 2.2
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 41.9
60.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
83.8 / 80.6
84.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 36.7
26.0 / 26.0
Steals
7.7 / 6.8
12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 8.3
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
TXST
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
TROY
TXST
TROY
ML
42%
13-18
59%
20-14
83%
25-5
61%
20-13
ATS
48%
15-16
65%
22-12
84%
26-5
61%
20-13
TTL
65%
20-11
56%
19-15
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
