Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thundering Herd @ Monarchs MRSH @ ODU

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

15-9  |  Road

81
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Chartway Arena
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

8-17  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
100%
📊
MONARCHS
0%
THUNDERING HERD --
MONARCHS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Old Dominion)
Thundering HerdMRSH (-3.5) 0 MonarchsODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thundering Herd Cover

0.5%

Monarchs Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ODU -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

MRSH By 1-7 points

0.4%

MRSH By 8-14 points

0.0%

ODU By 1-7 points

2.7%

ODU By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
60
MARSHALL
86
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
71
MARSHALL
75
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Monarchs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Monarchs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Monarchs (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Monarchs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 ODU @ MRSH 88 - 97
Feb 11, 2026 MRSH @ ODU 81 - 79
Feb 25, 2025 ODU @ MRSH 66 - 83
Feb 20, 2025 MRSH @ ODU 81 - 77
Feb 1, 2024 ODU @ MRSH 83 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +10.5%
Old Dominion: 77.4% vs Marshall: 66.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Old Dominion: 35.3% vs Marshall: 33.5%
Steals (L5) +19.3% more
Marshall: 7.2 vs Old Dominion: 5.8
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
Marshall: 15.7 vs Old Dominion: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 60.0 81
ODU Score 86.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 33.5 35.0 / 48.0
Assists 13.0 / 15.7 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.9 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 45.7 51.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 66.9 62.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 35.3 32.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.2 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 10.9 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
ODU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
MRSH
ODU
MRSH
ML
52% 17-16
70% 21-9
67% 22-11
62% 18-11
ATS
70% 23-10
70% 21-9
67% 22-11
62% 18-11
TTL
70% 23-10
50% 15-15
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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