UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
4-21 | Road
70
ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
15-10 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
RED WOLVES
0%
WARHAWKS
--
RED WOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Arkansas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)
ULM By 1-7 points
0.1%
ULM By 8-14 points
0.0%
ARST By 1-7 points
1.1%
ARST By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UL Monroe
68
UL MONROE
Arkansas State
98
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
UL Monroe
68
UL MONROE
Arkansas State
75
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wolves (-20.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Red Wolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
ARST @ ULM
102 - 94
Feb 11, 2026
ULM @ ARST
70 - 103
Feb 28, 2025
ARST @ ULM
94 - 67
Feb 22, 2025
ULM @ ARST
70 - 95
Feb 3, 2024
ULM @ ARST
80 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+81.5% more
Arkansas State: 17.2
vs
UL Monroe: 9.5
Steals (L5)
+33.1% more
Arkansas State: 9.4
vs
UL Monroe: 7.1
Rebounding (L5)
+16.4% more
Arkansas State: 41.8
vs
UL Monroe: 35.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.8%
Arkansas State: 36.1%
vs
UL Monroe: 20.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ULM Score
68.0
70
ARST Score
98.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 20.3
41.0 / 36.0
Assists
17.2 / 9.5
23.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.8
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 39.7
55.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
66.3 / 77.8
50.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
41.8 / 35.9
54.0 / 29.0
Steals
9.4 / 7.1
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 11.8
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
ULM
ARST
ULM
ML
48%
15-16
50%
16-16
53%
16-14
70%
21-9
ATS
58%
18-13
78%
25-7
53%
16-14
70%
21-9
TTL
61%
19-12
59%
19-13
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
