Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Broncos TOL @ WMU

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

12-12  |  Road

90
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 7:00 PM ET
University Arena (MI)
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

BRONCOSWMU

8-15  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
ROCKETS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Toledo)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 BroncosWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

99.2%

Broncos Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOL -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-7 points

4.0%

TOL By 8-14 points

12.2%

WMU By 1-7 points

0.6%

WMU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
101
TOLEDO
77
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
65
TOLEDO
78
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Win
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 TOL @ WMU 90 - 79
Dec 30, 2025 WMU @ TOL 79 - 84
Jan 4, 2025 TOL @ WMU 76 - 70
Jan 30, 2024 WMU @ TOL 63 - 88
Jan 6, 2023 WMU @ TOL 74 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.1% more
Toledo: 8.3 vs Western Michigan: 4.8
Assists (L5) +34.8% more
Toledo: 14.9 vs Western Michigan: 9.7
Blocks (L5) +23.5% more
Toledo: 3.2 vs Western Michigan: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Toledo: 76.9% vs Western Michigan: 69.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 101.0 90
WMU Score 77.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 33.7 35.0 / 47.0
Assists 9.7 / 14.9 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.2 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 47.9 43.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 76.9 82.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 31.1 36.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.8 / 8.3 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 10.5 8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
WMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
WMU
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
TOL
WMU
TOL
ML
60% 18-12
48% 16-17
70% 21-9
61% 20-13
ATS
67% 20-10
48% 16-17
70% 21-9
61% 20-13
TTL
57% 17-13
64% 21-12
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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