Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Huskies PSU @ WASH

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

10-14  |  Road

63
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 10:30 PM ET
Alaska Airlines Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

HUSKIESWASH

12-12  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
0%
📊
HUSKIES
100%
NITTANY LIONS --
HUSKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 HuskiesWASH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

18.4%

Huskies Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WASH +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

PSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

PSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

WASH By 1-7 points

12.2%

WASH By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
PENN STATE
65
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
70
PENN STATE
75
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nittany Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Huskies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Huskies (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Huskies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 PSU @ WASH 63 - 60
Feb 15, 2025 WASH @ PSU 75 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.9% more
Penn State: 7.9 vs Washington: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +82.1% more
Washington: 4.4 vs Penn State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +22.9% more
Washington: 33.5 vs Penn State: 27.2
Assists (L5) +22.7% more
Washington: 14.4 vs Penn State: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 74.0 63
WASH Score 65.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 29.0 33.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.4 / 11.7 11.0 / 4.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 46.8 38.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 75.4 57.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 27.2 37.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.9 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.7 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
WASH Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
WASH Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
WASH
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
PSU
WASH
PSU
ML
45% 15-18
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
56% 18-14
ATS
48% 16-17
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
56% 18-14
TTL
70% 23-10
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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