Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pilots @ Toreros PORT @ USD

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

12-14  |  Road

58
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 9:30 PM ET
Jenny Craig Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

10-16  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
0%
📊
TOREROS
100%
PILOTS --
TOREROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Portland)
PilotsPORT (-3.5) 0 TorerosUSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pilots Cover

99.9%

Toreros Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PORT -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

PORT By 1-7 points

1.1%

PORT By 8-14 points

4.8%

USD By 1-7 points

0.1%

USD By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
92
PORTLAND
62
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
72
PORTLAND
75
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pilots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Toreros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pilots (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Toreros (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 USD @ PORT 74 - 87
Feb 11, 2026 PORT @ USD 58 - 71
Mar 1, 2025 PORT @ USD 80 - 82
Jan 23, 2025 USD @ PORT 82 - 92
Feb 15, 2024 PORT @ USD 66 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.5%
Portland: 75.4% vs San Diego: 67.0%
Blocks (L5) +8.4% more
Portland: 2.3 vs San Diego: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PORT Score 92.0 58
USD Score 62.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 31.1 46.0 / 11.0
Assists 14.3 / 14.9 22.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.3 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 43.4 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 67.0 / 75.4 63.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 32.5 30.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.1 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 12.6 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
USD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
USD Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
PORT
USD
PORT
ML
58% 19-14
48% 16-17
70% 23-10
82% 27-6
ATS
55% 18-15
67% 22-11
70% 23-10
82% 28-6
TTL
61% 20-13
55% 18-15
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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