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CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

12-12  |  Road

91
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 9:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

10-13  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
BEARCATS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Cincinnati)
BearcatsCIN (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearcats Cover

99.9%

Wildcats Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CIN -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-7 points

1.1%

CIN By 8-14 points

4.8%

KSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

KSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
100
CINCINNATI
70
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
CINCINNATI
74
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearcats (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 CIN @ KSU 91 - 62
Mar 5, 2025 KSU @ CIN 54 - 49
Dec 30, 2024 CIN @ KSU 67 - 70
Mar 2, 2024 KSU @ CIN 72 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +22.6% more
Cincinnati: 35.8 vs Kansas State: 27.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Cincinnati: 40.8% vs Kansas State: 36.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
Cincinnati: 72.4% vs Kansas State: 70.3%
Steals (L5) +74.3% more
Kansas State: 7.4 vs Cincinnati: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 100.0 91
KSU Score 70.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 40.8 24.0 / 57.0
Assists 17.2 / 14.6 11.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.8 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 45.2 40.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 72.4 67.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 27.8 / 35.8 29.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.4 / 4.2 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 12.3 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
CIN
KSU
CIN
ML
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
69% 22-10
74% 23-8
ATS
62% 20-12
64% 21-12
69% 22-10
74% 23-8
TTL
47% 15-17
67% 22-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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