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TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

16-7  |  Road

73
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 9:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

11-12  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
VOLUNTEERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Mississippi State)
VolunteersTENN (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Volunteers Cover

21.2%

Bulldogs Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

TENN By 1-7 points

13.7%

TENN By 8-14 points

4.8%

MSST By 1-7 points

25.3%

MSST By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
85
TENNESSEE
93
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
68
TENNESSEE
75
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 TENN @ MSST 73 - 64
Jan 21, 2025 MSST @ TENN 56 - 68
Mar 15, 2024 MSST @ TENN 73 - 56
Jan 10, 2024 TENN @ MSST 72 - 77
Jan 17, 2023 TENN @ MSST 70 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +107.8% more
Mississippi State: 4.8 vs Tennessee: 2.3
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Mississippi State: 44.1% vs Tennessee: 42.3%
Steals (L5) +39.4% more
Tennessee: 7.1 vs Mississippi State: 4.3
Assists (L5) +26.3% more
Tennessee: 16.3 vs Mississippi State: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 85.0 73
MSST Score 93.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.1 / 36.5 32.0 / 31.0
Assists 12.0 / 16.3 11.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.8 / 2.3 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 42.3 41.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 69.1 54.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 44.4 31.0 / 45.0
Steals 4.3 / 7.1 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 12.1 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN Advantage
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
TENN
MSST
TENN
ML
66% 21-11
46% 17-20
55% 17-14
64% 21-12
ATS
56% 18-14
54% 20-17
55% 17-14
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 19-13
76% 28-9
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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