Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Mountain Hawks AMER @ LEH

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

13-12  |  Road

82
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Stabler Arena
View Odds Details →

LEHIGH

MOUNTAIN HAWKSLEH

10-15  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
MOUNTAIN HAWKS
0%
EAGLES --
MOUNTAIN HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
197.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
LEHIGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Lehigh)
EaglesAMER (-3.5) 0 Mountain HawksLEH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

13.6%

Mountain Hawks Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LEH -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LEH)

AMER By 1-7 points

9.3%

AMER By 8-14 points

2.7%

LEH By 1-7 points

21.6%

LEH By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
93
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
104
LEHIGH
Simulated Score
67
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
73
LEHIGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountain Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountain Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountain Hawks (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Mountain Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 197.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 LEH @ AMER 78 - 73
Feb 11, 2026 AMER @ LEH 82 - 90
Feb 8, 2025 AMER @ LEH 78 - 75
Jan 22, 2025 LEH @ AMER 67 - 68
Jan 20, 2024 AMER @ LEH 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +83.2% more
Lehigh: 2.8 vs American University: 1.6
Assists (L5) +20.0% more
Lehigh: 17.0 vs American University: 14.1
Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Lehigh: 47.7% vs American University: 42.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
American University: 69.7% vs Lehigh: 66.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMER Score 93.0 82
LEH Score 104.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 32.1 57.0 / 33.0
Assists 17.0 / 14.1 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.8 / 1.6 6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 42.3 60.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 69.7 69.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 33.1 30.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.9 / 5.6 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 11.5 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
LEH Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
LEH Advantage
18-14-1 (56.3%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
LEH
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LEH
AMER
LEH
AMER
ML
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
ATS
56% 19-15
59% 19-13
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
TTL
76% 26-8
59% 19-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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