USC
TROJANSUSC
18-6 | Road
82
OHIO STATE
BUCKEYESOSU
15-8 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
BUCKEYES
0%
TROJANS
--
BUCKEYES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ohio State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)
USC By 1-7 points
24.3%
USC By 8-14 points
13.7%
OSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
OSU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
84
USC
Ohio State
85
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
USC
72
USC
Ohio State
82
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Buckeyes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buckeyes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Buckeyes (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Buckeyes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
USC @ OSU
82 - 89
Feb 26, 2025
OSU @ USC
87 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Ohio State: 78.1%
vs
USC: 72.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Ohio State: 35.9%
vs
USC: 31.0%
Blocks (L5)
+51.9% more
USC: 5.9
vs
Ohio State: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+32.7% more
USC: 6.8
vs
Ohio State: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
84.0
82
OSU Score
85.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 31.0
32.0 / 35.0
Assists
12.8 / 13.9
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.9
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 47.4
50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
78.1 / 72.6
96.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
30.7 / 36.8
33.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.6 / 6.8
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 14.0
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
OSU
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 6.7
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
OSU
Advantage
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 6.7
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
USC
OSU
USC
ML
53%
18-16
52%
16-15
73%
24-9
58%
18-13
ATS
59%
20-14
68%
21-10
73%
24-9
58%
18-13
TTL
56%
19-15
68%
21-10
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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