Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Lopes UNM @ GCU

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

18-6  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 10:00 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

15-8  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
LOPES
100%
LOBOS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (New Mexico)
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

78.8%

Lopes Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNM -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-7 points

25.3%

UNM By 8-14 points

26.2%

GCU By 1-7 points

13.7%

GCU By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
64
NEW MEXICO
56
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
72
NEW MEXICO
78
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lobos (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 UNM @ GCU 70 - 64
Jan 13, 2026 GCU @ UNM 64 - 87
Dec 17, 2019 GCU @ UNM 71 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.8% more
New Mexico: 15.4 vs Grand Canyon: 11.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
New Mexico: 39.4% vs Grand Canyon: 34.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
New Mexico: 73.3% vs Grand Canyon: 69.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
New Mexico: 48.1% vs Grand Canyon: 45.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 64.0 70
GCU Score 56.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 39.4 16.0 / 56.0
Assists 11.6 / 15.4 8.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.4 / 1.7 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 48.1 38.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 73.3 78.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 32.5 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.7 / 6.4 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 9.0 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
GCU
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
GCU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
UNM
GCU
UNM
ML
66% 21-11
57% 21-16
68% 21-10
74% 25-9
ATS
72% 23-9
57% 21-16
68% 21-10
74% 25-9
TTL
44% 14-18
41% 15-22
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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