Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flames @ Aggies LIB @ NMSU

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

20-3  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 9:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

11-12  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
FLAMES --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (New Mexico State)
FlamesLIB (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

27.4%

Aggies Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

LIB By 1-7 points

16.9%

LIB By 8-14 points

6.8%

NMSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

NMSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
62
LIBERTY
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
68
LIBERTY
72
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 LIB @ NMSU 77 - 75
Jan 15, 2026 NMSU @ LIB 71 - 73
Feb 13, 2025 LIB @ NMSU 64 - 54
Jan 18, 2025 NMSU @ LIB 60 - 68
Feb 29, 2024 NMSU @ LIB 58 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +39.8% more
New Mexico State: 37.1 vs Liberty: 26.5
Turnovers (L5) +22.4% more
New Mexico State: 10.7 vs Liberty: 8.7
Steals (L5) +21.1% more
New Mexico State: 7.2 vs Liberty: 6.0
Assists (L5) +29.6% more
Liberty: 19.1 vs New Mexico State: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 62.0 77
NMSU Score 68.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 40.5 30.0 / 34.0
Assists 13.4 / 19.1 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.0 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 53.7 48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.4 / 72.8 100.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 26.5 37.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.0 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 8.7 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
LIB
NMSU
LIB
ML
61% 19-12
50% 17-17
67% 20-10
53% 18-16
ATS
65% 20-11
62% 21-13
67% 20-10
53% 18-16
TTL
45% 14-17
41% 14-20
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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