Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Eagles APP @ GASO

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

17-9  |  Road

81
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

14-11  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Georgia Southern)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 EaglesGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

0.0%

Eagles Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GASO -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

APP By 1-7 points

0.0%

APP By 8-14 points

0.0%

GASO By 1-7 points

0.1%

GASO By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
52
APP STATE
89
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
70
APP STATE
73
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 GASO @ APP 74 - 89
Feb 11, 2026 APP @ GASO 81 - 65
Feb 25, 2025 APP @ GASO 59 - 61
Feb 20, 2025 GASO @ APP 74 - 79
Mar 9, 2024 GASO @ APP 80 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +64.1% more
Georgia Southern: 7.6 vs App State: 4.6
Blocks (L5) +37.7% more
Georgia Southern: 4.5 vs App State: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +34.9% more
Georgia Southern: 11.2 vs App State: 8.3
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
Georgia Southern: 75.6% vs App State: 66.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 52.0 81
GASO Score 89.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 28.1 35.0 / 30.0
Assists 9.7 / 12.5 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.3 7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 40.5 38.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 66.7 67.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 41.0 35.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.6 / 4.6 4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 8.3 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
GASO
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
APP
GASO
APP
ML
56% 20-16
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
59% 19-13
ATS
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
59% 19-13
TTL
61% 22-14
69% 22-10
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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