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SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

16-8  |  Road

66
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Charles Koch Arena
View Odds Details →

WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

15-9  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
SHOCKERS
0%
BULLS --
SHOCKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WICHITA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Wichita State)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 ShockersWICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

38.2%

Shockers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WICH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WICH)

USF By 1-7 points

21.6%

USF By 8-14 points

10.7%

WICH By 1-7 points

27.2%

WICH By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SOUTH FLORIDA
73
WICHITA STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH FLORIDA
75
WICHITA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Shockers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Shockers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Shockers (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Shockers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 WICH @ USF 55 - 70
Feb 11, 2026 USF @ WICH 66 - 58
Jan 18, 2026 WICH @ USF 86 - 85
Mar 13, 2025 USF @ WICH 68 - 73
Feb 9, 2025 WICH @ USF 75 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.9% more
Wichita State: 8.0 vs South Florida: 6.8
Blocks (L5) +17.1% more
Wichita State: 4.3 vs South Florida: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +15.4% more
Wichita State: 10.9 vs South Florida: 9.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Wichita State: 33.4% vs South Florida: 29.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 70.0 66
WICH Score 73.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 29.9 21.0 / 28.0
Assists 13.7 / 19.4 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.7 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 46.2 32.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 57.8 / 75.0 67.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 39.1 37.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.0 / 6.8 12.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 9.4 13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
WICH
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WICH
USF
WICH
USF
ML
61% 22-14
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
52% 16-15
ATS
64% 23-13
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
52% 16-15
TTL
69% 25-11
52% 17-16
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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