AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
17-6 | Road
95
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
ROYALSQUC
14-11 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
ROYALS
0%
GOVERNORS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Queens University)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around QUC -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (QUC)
APSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
APSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
QUC By 1-7 points
0.8%
QUC By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Austin Peay
64
AUSTIN PEAY
Queens University
95
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
Austin Peay
70
AUSTIN PEAY
Queens University
76
QUEENS UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
QUC @ APSU
90 - 83
Feb 11, 2026
APSU @ QUC
95 - 87
Feb 20, 2025
APSU @ QUC
92 - 78
Jan 11, 2025
QUC @ APSU
67 - 60
Feb 10, 2024
QUC @ APSU
76 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Queens University: 79.7%
vs
Austin Peay: 73.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+19.1% more
Austin Peay: 10.0
vs
Queens University: 8.1
Blocks (L5)
+15.1% more
Austin Peay: 2.8
vs
Queens University: 2.4
Steals (L5)
+11.6% more
Austin Peay: 7.7
vs
Queens University: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APSU Score
64.0
95
QUC Score
95.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 47.6
36.0 / 36.0
Assists
14.0 / 15.4
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.8
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 54.6
52.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
79.7 / 73.1
62.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 31.4
28.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.7
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 10.0
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
QUC
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
QUC
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
QUC
22-12-0
O: 64.7% / U: 35.3%
Total +/-: +5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
QUC
APSU
QUC
APSU
ML
71%
25-10
53%
16-14
71%
24-10
59%
16-11
ATS
86%
30-5
57%
17-13
71%
24-10
59%
16-11
TTL
47%
16-18-1
57%
17-13
100%
34-0
100%
27-0
