PEPPERDINE
WAVESPEPP
6-19 | Road
60
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
21-4 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
100%
GAELS
0%
WAVES
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
PEPP By 1-7 points
0.0%
PEPP By 8-14 points
0.0%
SMC By 1-7 points
0.3%
SMC By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pepperdine
51
PEPPERDINE
Saint Mary's
86
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Pepperdine
62
PEPPERDINE
Saint Mary's
75
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (-24.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
PEPP @ SMC
60 - 88
Dec 30, 2025
SMC @ PEPP
72 - 45
Mar 10, 2025
PEPP @ SMC
59 - 74
Jan 18, 2025
SMC @ PEPP
74 - 50
Jan 2, 2025
PEPP @ SMC
41 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+69.2% more
Saint Mary's: 18.2
vs
Pepperdine: 10.8
Rebounding (L5)
+34.6% more
Saint Mary's: 41.4
vs
Pepperdine: 30.8
Steals (L5)
+13.0% more
Saint Mary's: 5.6
vs
Pepperdine: 4.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
Saint Mary's: 42.3%
vs
Pepperdine: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score
51.0
60
SMC Score
86.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.3 / 33.8
52.0 / 27.0
Assists
18.2 / 10.8
24.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.1
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 40.8
50.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
80.6 / 72.7
59.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 30.8
51.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.6 / 4.9
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 12.8
15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.4
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
PEPP
SMC
PEPP
ML
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
82%
23-5
69%
22-10
ATS
62%
20-12
56%
18-14
83%
24-5
69%
22-10
TTL
53%
17-15
50%
16-16
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
