BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
14-10 | Road
68
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HUSKIESNIU
8-14 | Home
52
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
HUSKIES
0%
FALCONS
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Northern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NIU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)
BGSU By 1-7 points
9.3%
BGSU By 8-14 points
2.7%
NIU By 1-7 points
21.6%
NIU By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
60
BOWLING GREEN
Northern Illinois
71
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
70
BOWLING GREEN
Northern Illinois
75
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Huskies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Huskies (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
BGSU @ NIU
68 - 52
Mar 4, 2025
BGSU @ NIU
71 - 58
Feb 4, 2025
NIU @ BGSU
77 - 84
Jan 13, 2024
BGSU @ NIU
83 - 72
Feb 4, 2023
NIU @ BGSU
86 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.6% more
Northern Illinois: 12.7
vs
Bowling Green: 10.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Northern Illinois: 36.9%
vs
Bowling Green: 28.3%
Blocks (L5)
+43.3% more
Bowling Green: 3.4
vs
Northern Illinois: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+33.3% more
Bowling Green: 8.5
vs
Northern Illinois: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
60.0
68
NIU Score
71.0
52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 28.3
19.0 / 31.0
Assists
12.7 / 10.5
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.4
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 42.8
32.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
66.1 / 73.5
73.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 34.3
31.0 / 39.0
Steals
5.7 / 8.5
4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 13.8
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
NIU
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
NIU
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
BGSU
NIU
BGSU
ML
67%
20-10
66%
21-11
66%
19-10
56%
18-14
ATS
63%
19-11
72%
23-9
66%
19-10
56%
18-14
TTL
67%
20-10
53%
17-15
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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