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ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

16-7  |  Road

93
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 7:00 PM ET
The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

11-12  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
📊
REBELS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Alabama)
Crimson TideALA (-3.5) 0 RebelsMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Tide Cover

91.9%

Rebels Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-7 points

16.9%

ALA By 8-14 points

26.2%

MISS By 1-7 points

5.8%

MISS By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
97
ALABAMA
83
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
72
ALABAMA
85
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Crimson Tide (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MISS @ ALA 80 - 79
Feb 11, 2026 ALA @ MISS 93 - 74
Jan 14, 2025 MISS @ ALA 74 - 64
Feb 28, 2024 ALA @ MISS 103 - 88
Jan 3, 2023 MISS @ ALA 62 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +44.1% more
Alabama: 16.6 vs Ole Miss: 9.3
Blocks (L5) +35.4% more
Alabama: 5.1 vs Ole Miss: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.8% more
Alabama: 11.0 vs Ole Miss: 8.4
Rebounding (L5) +17.9% more
Alabama: 36.4 vs Ole Miss: 29.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 97.0 93
MISS Score 83.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 40.4 36.0 / 38.0
Assists 9.3 / 16.6 19.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.1 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.7 / 47.2 42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 77.2 62.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 36.4 39.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.3 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 11.0 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
MISS
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
MISS
--
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
MISS
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
ALA
MISS
ALA
ML
48% 16-17
63% 22-13
52% 17-16
58% 19-14
ATS
61% 20-13
60% 21-14
52% 17-16
58% 19-14
TTL
64% 21-12
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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