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BUFFALO

BULLSBUF

14-10  |  Road

63
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

8-15  |  Home

53
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
BULLS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Buffalo)
BullsBUF (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

99.9%

Cardinals Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUF -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-7 points

1.1%

BUF By 8-14 points

4.8%

BALL By 1-7 points

0.1%

BALL By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
81
BUFFALO
51
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
68
BUFFALO
72
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulls (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 BUF @ BALL 63 - 53
Jan 3, 2026 BALL @ BUF 72 - 85
Feb 22, 2025 BUF @ BALL 66 - 80
Feb 1, 2025 BALL @ BUF 89 - 76
Jan 23, 2024 BALL @ BUF 87 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +42.9% more
Buffalo: 16.1 vs Ball State: 9.2
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Buffalo: 13.2 vs Ball State: 11.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Buffalo: 38.1% vs Ball State: 26.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Buffalo: 45.0% vs Ball State: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 81.0 63
BALL Score 51.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.7 / 38.1 33.0 / 32.0
Assists 9.2 / 16.1 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.4 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 45.0 35.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.0 / 70.7 78.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 30.8 / 33.1 30.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.7 / 6.6 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 13.2 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.6
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
BUF
BALL
BUF
ML
43% 13-17
45% 14-17
62% 18-11
45% 14-17
ATS
67% 20-10
55% 17-14
62% 18-11
45% 14-17
TTL
50% 15-15
48% 15-16
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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