MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
22-1 | Road
87
NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
10-14 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
WILDCATS
100%
WOLVERINES
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+12.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NU +12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)
MICH By 1-7 points
20.1%
MICH By 8-14 points
27.2%
NU By 1-7 points
8.0%
NU By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan
91
MICHIGAN
Northwestern
79
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
Michigan
69
MICHIGAN
Northwestern
78
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
MICH @ NU
87 - 75
Jan 19, 2025
NU @ MICH
76 - 80
Feb 22, 2024
MICH @ NU
62 - 76
Feb 2, 2023
MICH @ NU
68 - 51
Jan 15, 2023
NU @ MICH
78 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.1% more
Michigan: 6.1
vs
Northwestern: 2.7
Rebounding (L5)
+34.0% more
Michigan: 40.4
vs
Northwestern: 26.7
Assists (L5)
+33.9% more
Michigan: 20.2
vs
Northwestern: 13.4
Turnovers (L5)
+30.3% more
Michigan: 11.0
vs
Northwestern: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MICH Score
91.0
87
NU Score
79.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 39.8
24.0 / 28.0
Assists
13.4 / 20.2
14.0 / 21.0
Blocks
2.7 / 6.1
7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 50.0
40.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 83.0
93.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
26.7 / 40.4
30.0 / 47.0
Steals
4.0 / 3.5
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.6 / 11.0
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
NU
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
NU
Advantage
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
MICH
NU
MICH
ML
47%
16-18
78%
31-9
68%
23-11
63%
24-14
ATS
50%
17-17
78%
31-9
68%
23-11
63%
24-14
TTL
53%
18-16
57%
23-17
100%
34-0
100%
38-0
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