IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
18-5 | Road
70
MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
9-14 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
100%
TERRAPINS
0%
HAWKEYES
--
TERRAPINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Maryland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)
IOWA By 1-7 points
24.3%
IOWA By 8-14 points
13.7%
MD By 1-7 points
26.2%
MD By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
74
IOWA
Maryland
75
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Iowa
70
IOWA
Maryland
72
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Terrapins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Terrapins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Terrapins (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Terrapins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
MD @ IOWA
64 - 75
Feb 11, 2026
IOWA @ MD
70 - 77
Dec 6, 2025
MD @ IOWA
64 - 83
Feb 16, 2025
IOWA @ MD
75 - 101
Feb 14, 2024
IOWA @ MD
66 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+169.2% more
Maryland: 2.8
vs
Iowa: 1.0
Turnovers (L5)
+46.9% more
Maryland: 11.6
vs
Iowa: 7.9
Assists (L5)
+28.2% more
Iowa: 12.8
vs
Maryland: 9.2
Steals (L5)
+23.7% more
Iowa: 6.9
vs
Maryland: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
74.0
70
MD Score
75.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 37.9
35.0 / 25.0
Assists
9.2 / 12.8
8.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.0
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 50.8
53.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
64.8 / 76.6
68.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
29.6 / 28.0
34.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.3 / 6.9
1.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 7.9
14.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
IOWA
MD
IOWA
ML
70%
23-10
59%
22-15
67%
22-11
78%
28-8
ATS
64%
21-12
76%
28-9
67%
22-11
78%
28-8
TTL
64%
21-12
57%
21-16
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
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