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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-33  |  Road

111
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 9:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

31-22  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
MAVERICKS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
246.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

42.1%

Suns Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

DAL By 1-7 points

26.8%

DAL By 8-14 points

18.6%

PHX By 1-7 points

23.0%

PHX By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
124
DALLAS
122
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
111
DALLAS
116
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (+8) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Win
Proj Total: 246.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 DAL @ PHX 107 - 112
Feb 10, 2026 DAL @ PHX 111 - 120
Nov 12, 2025 PHX @ DAL 123 - 114
Mar 9, 2025 PHX @ DAL 125 - 116
Dec 27, 2024 DAL @ PHX 98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.7% more
Dallas: 5.2 vs Phoenix: 1.8
Assists (L5) +13.7% more
Dallas: 26.7 vs Phoenix: 23.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Dallas: 44.4 vs Phoenix: 40.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Dallas: 37.0% vs Phoenix: 35.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 124.0 111
PHX Score 122.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 37.0 32.0 / 23.0
Assists 23.0 / 26.7 32.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.8 / 5.2 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 45.2 48.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 76.2 67.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 40.2 / 44.4 49.0 / 42.0
Steals 9.7 / 7.7 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 9.4 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DAL
PHX
DAL
ML
57% 60-45
62% 63-39
51% 45-43
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 59-43-3
67% 68-34
51% 45-43
54% 44-37
TTL
59% 61-42-2
59% 60-41-1
100% 88-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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