Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Rebels SJSU @ UNLV

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

6-17  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 11:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

11-12  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
REBELS
100%
SPARTANS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 RebelsUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

42.1%

Rebels Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNLV +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

SJSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SJSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

UNLV By 1-7 points

23.0%

UNLV By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SAN JOSÉ STATE
77
UNLV
Simulated Score
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
73
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 SJSU @ UNLV 75 - 82
Jan 17, 2026 UNLV @ SJSU 76 - 62
Feb 25, 2025 UNLV @ SJSU 77 - 71
Jan 4, 2025 SJSU @ UNLV 73 - 79
Mar 2, 2024 SJSU @ UNLV 50 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +238.0% more
UNLV: 4.4 vs San José State: 1.3
Turnovers (L5) +94.7% more
UNLV: 13.7 vs San José State: 7.0
Assists (L5) +40.0% more
UNLV: 13.4 vs San José State: 9.6
Steals (L5) +38.1% more
UNLV: 6.2 vs San José State: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 79.0 75
UNLV Score 77.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 31.7 32.0 / 46.0
Assists 13.4 / 9.6 16.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.4 / 1.3 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 39.0 49.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 80.5 / 76.6 71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 26.9 43.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.2 / 4.5 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 7.0 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UNLV Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
SJSU
UNLV
SJSU
ML
50% 17-17
73% 24-9
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
ATS
65% 22-12
73% 24-9
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
TTL
62% 21-13
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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