Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Patriots @ Spiders GMU @ RICH

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

21-3  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Robins Center
View Odds Details →

RICHMOND

SPIDERSRICH

13-11  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
SPIDERS
100%
PATRIOTS --
SPIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (George Mason)
PatriotsGMU (-3.5) 0 SpidersRICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

86.4%

Spiders Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GMU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

GMU By 1-7 points

21.6%

GMU By 8-14 points

27.4%

RICH By 1-7 points

9.3%

RICH By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
63
GEORGE MASON
52
RICHMOND
Simulated Score
68
GEORGE MASON
72
RICHMOND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Patriots (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Spiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 GMU @ RICH 70 - 82
Mar 8, 2025 GMU @ RICH 64 - 60
Jan 8, 2025 RICH @ GMU 58 - 64
Mar 9, 2024 RICH @ GMU 46 - 64
Jan 13, 2024 GMU @ RICH 70 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.9% more
George Mason: 3.0 vs Richmond: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +13.7% more
George Mason: 32.8 vs Richmond: 28.3
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
George Mason: 11.9 vs Richmond: 10.6
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
George Mason: 46.6% vs Richmond: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GMU Score 63.0 70
RICH Score 52.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 29.3 39.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.1 / 11.7 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.0 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 46.6 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 78.6 / 70.0 84.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 28.3 / 32.8 30.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.5 / 4.8 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.9 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
RICH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
RICH
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICH
GMU
RICH
GMU
ML
53% 17-15
55% 18-15
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
ATS
44% 14-18
55% 18-15
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
TTL
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Arizona's Gio Richardson Exits Cincinnati Game After Brief Retur…
headtopics 4 days, 20 hours ago
Keyshawn Hall Wins Temporary Restraining Order, Cleared to Suit …
saturdaydownsouth 6 days, 8 hours ago
Colorado Running Back Richard Young Poised for Expanded Role in …
headtopics 1 month ago
Colorado's Richard Young Poised for Expanded Role Against Weber …
si 1 month ago
UConn Adds Shaw with Deep Basketball Roots and Veteran Presence …
courant 1 month, 3 weeks ago