Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Irish @ Mustangs ND @ SMU

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

11-13  |  Road

81
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

16-7  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
📊
MUSTANGS
100%
FIGHTING IRISH --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Notre Dame)
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

98.9%

Mustangs Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ND -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-7 points

4.8%

ND By 8-14 points

13.7%

SMU By 1-7 points

0.8%

SMU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
85
NOTRE DAME
62
SMU
Simulated Score
70
NOTRE DAME
75
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 ND @ SMU 81 - 89
Feb 19, 2025 SMU @ ND 97 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.6% more
SMU: 6.5 vs Notre Dame: 4.7
Assists (L5) +30.7% more
SMU: 16.5 vs Notre Dame: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
SMU: 42.6% vs Notre Dame: 33.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
SMU: 70.5% vs Notre Dame: 61.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 85.0 81
SMU Score 62.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.6 / 33.5 46.0 / 44.0
Assists 16.5 / 12.6 25.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.2 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 42.8 52.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 61.7 75.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 38.4 38.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.5 / 4.7 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 11.1 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
ND
SMU
ND
ML
59% 20-14
65% 20-11
73% 24-9
77% 24-7
ATS
62% 21-13
55% 17-14
73% 24-9
77% 24-7
TTL
56% 19-15
68% 21-10
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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