Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Aggies FRES @ USU

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

11-12  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 9:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

20-3  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
BULLDOGS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Utah State)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Aggies Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

FRES By 1-7 points

24.3%

FRES By 8-14 points

13.7%

USU By 1-7 points

26.2%

USU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
82
FRESNO STATE
83
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
74
FRESNO STATE
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 FRES @ USU 78 - 91
Dec 30, 2025 USU @ FRES 72 - 63
Feb 7, 2025 USU @ FRES 89 - 81
Jan 4, 2025 FRES @ USU 83 - 89
Mar 14, 2024 FRES @ USU 75 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +100.0% more
Utah State: 2.7 vs Fresno State: 1.3
Assists (L5) +52.0% more
Utah State: 16.6 vs Fresno State: 10.9
Steals (L5) +36.7% more
Utah State: 6.7 vs Fresno State: 4.9
Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
Utah State: 53.4% vs Fresno State: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 82.0 78
USU Score 83.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 36.4 42.0 / 28.0
Assists 16.6 / 10.9 20.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.7 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 53.4 / 43.1 51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 74.8 79.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 31.6 35.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.7 / 4.9 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 11.6 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
FRES
USU
FRES
ML
49% 17-18
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
74% 23-8
ATS
74% 26-9
75% 24-8
67% 22-11
74% 23-8
TTL
51% 18-17
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 14 hours, 15 minutes ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 14 hours ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 13 hours ago
Michigan State's Exhibition Win Reveals Key Player Development a…
yahoo 5 days, 21 hours ago