IOWA STATE
CYCLONESISU
21-2 | Road
55
TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
14-9 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
0%
HORNED FROGS
100%
CYCLONES
--
HORNED FROGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Iowa State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ISU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)
ISU By 1-7 points
8.0%
ISU By 8-14 points
18.6%
TCU By 1-7 points
1.7%
TCU By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa State
88
IOWA STATE
TCU
68
TCU
Simulated Score
Iowa State
67
IOWA STATE
TCU
70
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cyclones
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Horned Frogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cyclones (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Horned Frogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
ISU @ TCU
55 - 62
Feb 8, 2025
TCU @ ISU
52 - 82
Feb 10, 2024
TCU @ ISU
59 - 71
Jan 20, 2024
ISU @ TCU
73 - 72
Feb 15, 2023
TCU @ ISU
59 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.7% more
Iowa State: 19.0
vs
TCU: 14.5
Steals (L5)
+22.0% more
Iowa State: 7.4
vs
TCU: 5.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.9%
Iowa State: 39.8%
vs
TCU: 29.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Iowa State: 52.1%
vs
TCU: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ISU Score
88.0
55
TCU Score
68.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 39.8
28.0 / 23.0
Assists
14.5 / 19.0
13.0 / 20.0
Blocks
2.1 / 1.5
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 52.1
40.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
68.5 / 68.0
65.0 / 25.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 37.4
36.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.8 / 7.4
12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 12.3
15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
Advantage
29-8-0
(78.4%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
TCU
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
Advantage
22-14-1
(61.1%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
TCU
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8%
Total +/-: -1.4
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
ISU
TCU
ISU
ML
74%
26-9
57%
21-16
63%
19-11
76%
26-8
ATS
74%
26-9
62%
23-14
63%
19-11
76%
26-8
TTL
66%
23-12
54%
20-17
100%
30-0
100%
34-0
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