Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Wildcats MARQ @ VILL

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

9-15  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 7:30 PM ET
Finneran Pavilion
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

18-5  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MARQUETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Marquette)
Golden EaglesMARQ (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

96.4%

Wildcats Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MARQ -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MARQ)

MARQ By 1-7 points

10.7%

MARQ By 8-14 points

21.6%

VILL By 1-7 points

2.7%

VILL By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
75
MARQUETTE
57
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
71
MARQUETTE
74
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 MARQ @ VILL 74 - 77
Jan 10, 2026 VILL @ MARQ 76 - 73
Feb 21, 2025 MARQ @ VILL 66 - 81
Jan 24, 2025 VILL @ MARQ 74 - 87
Mar 14, 2024 VILL @ MARQ 65 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +67.2% more
Marquette: 3.5 vs Villanova: 1.1
Steals (L5) +28.6% more
Marquette: 10.5 vs Villanova: 7.5
Turnovers (L5) +12.9% more
Marquette: 11.7 vs Villanova: 10.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Marquette: 42.2% vs Villanova: 35.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MARQ Score 75.0 74
VILL Score 57.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 42.2 38.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.9 / 16.4 17.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.1 / 3.5 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 48.5 39.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 65.9 / 58.2 58.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 30.0 36.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.5 / 10.5 13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.7 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
MARQ
VILL
MARQ
ML
44% 14-18
59% 19-13
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
ATS
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
TTL
41% 13-19
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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