VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
20-3 | Road
61
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
11-12 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
SEMINOLES
100%
CAVALIERS
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
192.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Virginia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)
UVA By 1-7 points
16.9%
UVA By 8-14 points
26.2%
FSU By 1-7 points
5.8%
FSU By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia
103
VIRGINIA
Florida State
89
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
Virginia
64
VIRGINIA
Florida State
69
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 192.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
UVA @ FSU
61 - 58
Mar 4, 2025
FSU @ UVA
57 - 60
Feb 10, 2024
UVA @ FSU
80 - 76
Jan 14, 2023
UVA @ FSU
67 - 58
Dec 3, 2022
FSU @ UVA
57 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.5% more
Virginia: 4.5
vs
Florida State: 3.4
Steals (L5)
+23.8% more
Virginia: 8.0
vs
Florida State: 6.1
Turnovers (L5)
+17.6% more
Virginia: 9.9
vs
Florida State: 8.2
Assists (L5)
+12.1% more
Virginia: 16.6
vs
Florida State: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVA Score
103.0
61
FSU Score
89.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 31.4
18.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.6 / 16.6
8.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.5
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 43.5
29.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
72.5 / 66.8
73.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 39.2
37.0 / 47.0
Steals
6.1 / 8.0
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 9.9
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
FSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
UVA
FSU
UVA
ML
64%
21-12
67%
24-12
59%
19-13
72%
26-10
ATS
55%
18-15
75%
27-9
59%
19-13
72%
26-10
TTL
48%
16-17
53%
19-17
100%
32-0
100%
36-0
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