EAST TEXAS A&M
LIONSETAM
10-15 | Road
70
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
21-3 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
LIONS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
ETAM By 1-7 points
10.7%
ETAM By 8-14 points
3.3%
SFA By 1-7 points
23.0%
SFA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
East Texas A&M
78
EAST TEXAS A&M
Stephen F. Austin
88
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
East Texas A&M
65
EAST TEXAS A&M
Stephen F. Austin
82
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (+15)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
ETAM @ SFA
70 - 74
Dec 29, 2025
SFA @ ETAM
75 - 48
Feb 17, 2025
SFA @ ETAM
76 - 74
Jan 27, 2025
ETAM @ SFA
72 - 79
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.2%
Stephen F. Austin: 43.5%
vs
East Texas A&M: 30.4%
Blocks (L5)
+11.3% more
Stephen F. Austin: 4.2
vs
East Texas A&M: 3.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.9%
Stephen F. Austin: 47.9%
vs
East Texas A&M: 39.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.2%
Stephen F. Austin: 74.7%
vs
East Texas A&M: 72.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ETAM Score
78.0
70
SFA Score
88.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.5 / 30.4
35.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.7 / 13.8
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 39.0
44.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 72.5
65.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 36.0
36.0 / 25.0
Steals
7.7 / 8.4
8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 10.9
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETAM
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETAM
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
ETAM
SFA
ETAM
ML
59%
17-12
52%
13-12
79%
23-6
62%
15-9
ATS
59%
17-12
56%
14-11
79%
23-6
62%
15-9
TTL
62%
18-11
68%
17-8
100%
29-0
100%
24-0
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